OIL PRICE FORECASTS
Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).
The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for West Texas Intermediate Oil Price Forecasts taken from our January 2012 publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the WTI price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.
| West Texas Intermediate, US$ per barrel | ||
|---|---|---|
| Range 1985-2012 Spot Rate (January 9) |
10.4-145.3 101.3 |
|
| January Survey | Forecast for | |
| End April 2012 |
End January 2013 |
|
| Mean Forecast | 98.4 | 100.5 |
| High | 120.0 | 122.5 |
| Low | 79.0 | 72.5 |
| Standard Deviation | 8.4 | 10.6 |
| No. of Forecasts | 71 | 66 |
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Geopolitics and European Concerns Support Oil Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tipped above the US$100-mark at the beginning of January. However, this did little to narrow the gap between WTI and Brent, which remains roughly US$10 above the US benchmark. Oil prices have risen on the back of renewed concern over Iran’s uranium-enrichment program. The situation has been further strained by Iran’s threats to block the straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf (a key oil shipping route) if sanctions are imposed. Downside pressures on prices have come from ongoing worries over the Euro zone debt crisis and economic downturn. Recent US improvement bodes well for WTI futures, though, which may see a volatile few days following the re-weighting of the S&P GSCI and DJ-UBS major commodity indices.
Taken from Consensus Forecasts, January 9, 2012.