SECTORAL GROWTH FORECASTS
In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.
| Latin American Consensus Forecasts | Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Venezuela | Czech Republic | Estonia |
| Brazil | Colombia | Hungary | Latvia |
| Chile | Peru | Poland | Lithuania |
| Mexico | Russia | Romania | |
| Turkey | Slovakia | ||
| Bulgaria | Slovenia | ||
| Croatia | Ukraine | ||
Download Sample Issues
The table below shows a sample of the data for Argentina from one of our surveys of forecasts for Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our August 2010 Latin American Consensus Forecasts survey), together with textual analysis from the same publication.
| ARGENTINA | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change on previous year | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Agriculture and Forestry | 1.5 | 10.3 | -2.7 | -15.8 | 17.8 | 3.6 |
| Fishing | 63.5 | -6.4 | 4.2 | -11.9 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| Mining | 3.0 | -0.5 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Manufacturing | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 |
| Electricity, Gas, Water | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| Construction | 17.9 | 9.9 | 3.7 | -3.8 | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| Services | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 3.6 |
| Total GDP | 8.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 4.1 |
Following a weak 2009, Argentina’s economy is off
to a rollicking start, according to official data sources. Government spending
has helped to support activity (including massive wage hikes for public
sector workers, despite the fact that inflation is “officially”
half the pace of salary growth). Moreover, a rebound in global demand is
helping manufacturing which is expected to grow by 8.3% this year. In addition,
recovering agricultural prices – Russia’s ban on wheat exports
has pushed up prices for the commodity – is expected to support a
barnstorming 17.8% growth rate in the sector. By comparison, output in mining
and electricity/gas/water is muted: government-enforced utility caps have
chased away investors. Moreover, next year’s outturn in all sectors
is forecast to be significantly more subdued.
A portion of text from Latin American Consensus Forecasts, August 16, 2010.