SECTORAL GROWTH FORECASTS
In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.
| Latin American Consensus Forecasts | Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Venezuela | Czech Republic | Russia |
| Brazil | Colombia | Hungary | Turkey |
| Chile | Peru | Poland | |
| Mexico | |||
Download Sample Issues
The table below shows a sample of the data for Argentina from one of our surveys of forecasts for Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our August 2009 Latin American Consensus Forecasts survey), together with textual analysis from the same publication.
| ARGENTINA | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change on previous year | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Agriculture and Forestry | 11.7 | 1.5 | 10.3 | -2.7 | -7.4 | 7.3 |
| Fishing | -14.3 | 63.5 | -6.4 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| Mining | -0.2 | 3.0 | -0.5 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 1.0 |
| Manufacturing | 7.5 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.5 | -2.9 | 2.2 |
| Electricity, Gas, Water | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Construction | 20.4 | 17.9 | 9.9 | 3.7 | -1.4 | 2.1 |
| Services | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Total GDP | 9.2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | -2.2 | 1.8 |
Argentina enjoyed years of strong GDP growth, helped by high commodity prices, a competitive peso and expansionary policies. However, this year is expected to see a recession in many sectors, such as manufacturing (which is projected to decline by 2.9%) and agriculture and forestry (falling by a massive 7.4%). Agriculture has been badly hit by a series of farmers’ strikes in protest at high taxes. With the authorities anxious to maximise revenues in the weak economic environment, they are unlikely to give in to the farmers’ demands. Farming has also been reined in by lower commodity prices (although these have started to trend upward again) and severe drought conditions. Next year should see a sharp rebound, though – at odds with the muted turnaround in other sectors (and GDP as a whole).
A portion of text from Latin American Consensus Forecasts, August 17, 2009