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Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies; those for Eastern Europe feature in March.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies. Eastern Europe quarterlies feature in May.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The July edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies; those for Eastern Europe feature in September.
Our November publications focus on forecasts for Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits, as well as Foreign Direct Investment in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January,Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2012 and 2013 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
Significant Changes in the Consensus - November 14, 2011
In
a clear sign that euro zone turbulence and the resulting sharp global downturn
are hitting Asia's industrial- and export-driven economies, 2012
consensus growth and manufacturing forecasts have continued to
decline in our latest survey. Although manufacturing is likely to have contributed
to the estimated 5.9% (y-o-y) Q3 expansion in Singapore,
the sector most probably encountered a marked slowdown as external demand
wanes for the country's export products. The Monetary Authority of Singapore
predicts that the economy will stall over the next nine months as global
growth cools. Indeed, our panel's growth forecast for next year has now
been slashed to 3.8% from 5.5% in March. Meanwhile, stubborn inflation of
around 5% has complicated policy action, but with price rises set to moderate
in 2012, policymakers – like many of their Asian counterparts – are now
shifting their priority to supporting growth. Elsewhere, broad-based weakness
was reflected in Malaysia's industrial production numbers
in September and, although exports have held up surprisingly well thanks
to commodities shipments, downside risk is mounting.
Gross Domestic |
Historical Data | 2011 Forecast | Consensus Forecasts for 2012 from Survey of: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * % change on previous year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Jun.'11 | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | |
| Malaysia |
6.5 | 4.8 | -1.6 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Singapore | 8.8 | 1.5 | -0.8 | 14.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Taiwan | 6.0 | 0.7 | -1.9 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| Thailand | 5.0 | 2.5 | -2.3 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
Similarly,
in Taiwan, milder industrial activity and a reduction in
export orders followed a lacklustre Q3 GDP report which showed activity
contracting by 0.3% (q-o-q) and annual growth registering the softest pace
in two years (3.4%). Furthermore, our panel's 2012 growth forecast of 3.5%
ranks Taiwan's outlook as one of the weakest in the region. Thailand,
meanwhile, has been experiencing devastating floods. Severe economic disruption
at a time of reduced overseas demand has dented 2011 forecasts for all domestic
indicators, not least GDP growth which has dropped 1.1 percentage points
since our October survey. In contrast to its South East Asian neighbours,
though, 2012 growth forecasts have strengthened in anticipation of an increase
in flood-related recovery projects. The consensus believes that manufacturing
bottlenecks could linger, however, while widespread destruction of agricultural
crops might feed through into higher prices. The previously hawkish central
bank paused its tightening cycle in October, having hiked rates by 225 basis
points since July 2010.
Manufacturing Production* |
Historical Data | 2011 Forecast | Consensus Forecasts for 2012 from Survey of: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * % change on previous year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Jun.'11 | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | |
| Malaysia |
1.4 | 0.7 | -10.0 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Singapore | 5.9 | -4.2 | -4.1 | 29.7 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Taiwan | 8.3 | -1.6 | -8.0 | 28.6 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Thailand | 8.1 | 3.9 | -7.2 | 14.4 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
Taken from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, November 2011.