Significant Changes in the Consensus - April 12, 2010
Consensus
growth forecasts for 2010 have continued their upward trend as activity
in the Asia Pacific region recovers from last year's recession. Signs of
a more vigorous rebound have been evident in recent months, particularly
in export-oriented sectors which are benefiting from the revival in demand
across the world. The recovery in global demand has been accompanied by
a sharp pick-up in industrial activity in many countries. In Taiwan,
industrial output rose by 35.2% (y-o-y) in February, while solid gains in
export orders bode well for production going forward. In addition, improving
corporate sentiment is providing a boost to hiring and underpinning brighter
labour market conditions. The trend witnessed in Taiwan industry is also
echoed in recent data from South Korea which showed a 3.6%
(m-o-m) rise in industrial production as well as a broad-based improvement
in domestic demand indicatorrs such as consumption good sales and business
equipment investment.
Gross Domestic Product* |
Historical Data | Consensus Forecasts for 2010 from Survey of: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * % change on previous year | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Nov '09 | Dec | Jan '10 | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Australia |
2.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| South Korea | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Taiwan | 5.4 | 6.0 | 0.7 | -1.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
Despite Asian growth gathering pace, inflation looks manageable for the
time being, hitting a five-month low in South Korea in February and moderating
to 3.43% (y-o-y) in Indonesia last month. In fact, even
with Indonesian growth forecasts rising to 5.8% for 2010, our panel's inflation
forecasts for this year have slipped to 4.9%, mirroring the central bank's
optimism that consumer price rises will be capped by the appreciating rupiah.
However, given the clear acceleration in regional growth, speculation is
mounting that an increasing number of central banks in Asia will be forced
to adopt a tighter monetary stance at some point this year. The Reserve
Bank of Australia has already hiked interest rates five times since
October 2009, and following its lead, borrowing costs have risen in both
India and Malaysia in recent months.
| Consumer Price Inflation* | Historical Data |
Consensus Forecasts for 2010 from Survey of: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
* % change on previous |
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Nov '09 | Dec | Jan '10 | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Australia |
3.5 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Indonesia | 13.1 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| South Korea | 2.2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Taiwan | 0.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Taken from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, April 2010.